Empirics | PolEconFin

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Empirics | Financial markets | Political institutions | Theory

Democratization, Inequality, and Risk Premia

Paper

Posted on 21 September 2021

By Max Miller

Risk premia are significantly elevated during periods of democratization in a cross-country panel of equity data covering 85 countries over 200 years, despite little evidence of a negative effect on...

Banking | Electoral politics | Empirics | Political institutions

The Costs of Political Misalignment: Forest Fires and Bank Loans in Turkey

Opinion

Posted on 16 September 2021

By Orkun Saka

Recent wildfires in Turkey have not only destroyed more than 95,000 hectares of its coastal forestland but also divided the country further into its political colors. This piece discusses the...

Banking | Empirics | Regulation

Aspects of the Political Economy of the European Banking Union

Opinion

Posted on 6 September 2021

By Lena Tonzer

The regulatory architecture of the financial system has significantly changed after the global financial crisis of 2008/09. In Europe, the introduction of the Single Rulebook has been a major change...

Corporate finance | Empirics

Political Attitudes, Partisanship, and Merger Activity

Paper

Posted on 2 September 2021

By Ran Duchin

We demonstrate that similarity in employees’ political attitudes plays an important role in mergers and acquisitions. Using detailed data on employees’ campaign contributions to Democrats and Republicans, we find that...

Empirics | Political institutions | Special interest politics

Why We Don’t Write More Papers on Political Finance

Opinion

Posted on 17 August 2021

By Orkun Saka

Despite the commonly held views of economists on regulatory capture, our profession has been much more hesitant in recognising similar conflicts of interests that may exist in economics research. This...

Banking | Electoral politics | Empirics

Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment

Paper

Posted on 30 July 2021

By Orkun Saka

We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections...

Empirics | Financial markets

Partisan Return Gap

Paper

Posted on 19 July 2021

By Jinfei Sheng

We document sharp differences in stock price responses to COVID-19-related news between public firms headquartered in blue counties (dominated by Democratic voters) and those in red counties (dominated by Republican...

Empirics | Financial markets | Theory

Political Cycles and Stock Returns

Paper

Posted on 18 July 2021

By Lubos Pastor

We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democrat or Republican. In equilibrium,...

Corporate finance | Empirics

Polarized Corporate Boards

Paper

Posted on 16 July 2021

By Phong Ngo

We show that political polarization between directors and the CEO negatively impacts the effectiveness of corporate boards. At the director level, polarization increases directors’ incentive to monitor the CEO but...

Electoral politics | Empirics | Political institutions

The Political Scar of Epidemics

Paper

Posted on 15 July 2021

By Orkun Saka

What political legacy is bequeathed by national health crises such as epidemics? We show that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative...

Empirics | Political institutions | Regulation

Financial Policymaking After Crises: Public vs. Private Interests

Paper

Posted on 7 July 2021

By Orkun Saka

We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish...

Corporate finance | Empirics

The Political Polarization of U.S. Firms

Paper

Posted on 3 July 2021

By Elisabeth Kempf

Executive teams in U.S. firms are becoming increasingly politically polarized. We establish this new fact using political affiliations from voter registration records for top executives of S&P 1500 firms between...

Central banking | Empirics

Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics

Paper

Posted on 3 July 2021

By Elisabeth Kempf

We compare the findings of central bank researchers and academic economists regarding the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE). We find that central bank papers find QE to be more...

Banking | Corporate finance | Electoral politics | Empirics

The Effects of Local Government Financial Distress: Evidence from Toxic Loans

Paper

Posted on 2 July 2021

By Boris Vallee

We examine the response from both local governments and their voters to a sudden increase in public debt burden. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the ex post cost of...

Banking | Central banking | Empirics

Can Competition Between Regulated and Unregulated Institutions Affect Financial Stability?

Paper

Posted on 2 July 2021

By Eric Monnet

In the paper "The Real Effects of Bank Runs. Evidence from the French Great Depression (1930-1931)" we study how competition between regulated and unregulated institutions can trigger financial instability and...

Papers & Opinions