Empirics | PolEconFin

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Empirics | Financial markets

Geopolitical Risk and Stock Returns

Paper

Posted on 14 April 2025

By Jinfei Sheng

This paper systematically examines the relationship between geopolitical risk and stock market returns by constructing a comprehensive Geopolitical Risk Index (GRI) using textual analysis of Wall Street Journal archives from...

Corporate finance | Empirics | Political institutions

Corporate Cash under Populist Leadership: A Tale of Two Variants

Paper

Posted on 12 February 2025

By Wei-Fong Pan

How do firms manage liquidity in populist-led countries? Using close elections involving populists, we test two hypotheses: populism prompts firms to either (i) increase cash holdings due to political risk...

Empirics | Financial markets

Does Partisanship Affect Mutual Fund Information Processing?

Paper

Posted on 6 January 2025

By Wanyi Wang

This paper studies how partisanship affects mutual fund information processing at the firm level. Using textual analysis of earnings call transcripts, I identify discussions on partisan-sensitive topics, such as climate...

Banking | Empirics | Financial markets | Regulation

Bank Lobbying as a Financial Safety Net

Paper

Posted on 4 November 2024

By Kentaro Asai

I argue creditors, plausibly considering the link between bank lobbying and government bailouts, reflect the financial-safety-net aspect of bank lobbying. My structural estimation based on U.S. data suggests bank lobbying...

Electoral politics | Empirics | Financial markets | Political institutions | Special interest politics

Markets under Siege: How Political Beliefs Move Financial Markets

Paper

Posted on 12 October 2024

By Saumitra Jha

Can political beliefs, particularly about benefits of war versus peace, move thick financial markets? We document that following an unlikely victory by French citizen-soldiers during the German Siege of Paris...

Empirics | Regulation | Special interest politics

Regulatory Capture in Public Procurement

Paper

Posted on 10 October 2024

By Kentaro Asai

This paper studies how hiring public officials affects firms’ ability to win government contracts in Japan. We link personnel transitions of public officials to contractors and government contracts awarded to...

Political Polarization and Finance

Paper

Posted on 5 August 2024

By Elisabeth Kempf

We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which...

Electoral politics | Empirics | Political institutions

Valuing Peace: The Effects of Financial Market Exposure on Votes and Political Attitudes

Paper

Posted on 1 May 2024

By Saumitra Jha

Can participation in financial markets lead individuals to reevaluate the costs of conflict, change their political attitudes, and even their votes? Prior to the 2015 Israeli elections, we randomly assigned...

Electoral politics | Empirics | Political institutions

Mega-Donors and Representation of the Wealthy in the Wake of Citizens United

Paper

Posted on 25 April 2024

By Guosong Xu

We document that in the wake of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, which increased in the ability of the wealthy to finance political campaigns, the share of total electoral...

Empirics | Financial markets | Political institutions

Financial Market Exposure Increases Generalized Trust, Particularly Among the Politically Polarized

Paper

Posted on 19 April 2024

By Saumitra Jha

How can we build trust, especially in polarized societies? We propose that exposure to broad financial markets—where individuals place their assets in the hands of large groups of unfamiliar agents...

Empirics | Financial development | Political institutions

Financial Asset Holdings and Political Attitudes

Paper

Posted on 22 March 2024

By Saumitra Jha

The English Parliament’s struggle for supremacy against monarchical dictatorship during the Civil War (1642–1648) was crucial for the establishment of representative government, yet its lessons continue to be debated. I...

Corporate finance | Electoral politics | Empirics

Safeguarding Against Populist Expropriation Risk

Paper

Posted on 22 December 2023

By Wei-Fong Pan

This study explores whether firms adjust their liquidity in response to heightened uncertainty and expropriation risk associated with populism. Using an event study approach, we consistently find that firms reduce...

Banking | Empirics | Regulation

The Implementation of Central Bank Policy in China

Paper

Posted on 27 November 2023

By Yushi Peng

We examine the roles of commercial bank ownership and CEO faction membership in facilitating or in hindering the implementation of central bank policy in China. Both ownership and membership matter:...

Electoral politics | Empirics | Financial markets | Regulation

Is Sustainable Finance a Dangerous Placebo?

Paper

Posted on 18 July 2023

By Stefano Ramelli

A first-order concern regarding sustainable finance is that it may crowd out individual support for more effective, policy-driven approaches to address societal challenges. We test the validity of this concern...

Corporate finance | Empirics | Political institutions

Going Extreme: The Impact of Political Polarization on Corporate Investment

Paper

Posted on 11 May 2023

By Tiecheng Leng

Using data on roll-call voting patterns of U.S. state legislators from 1993 to 2016, we find a negative relationship between firm investment and state legislative polarization, measured as the ideological...

Papers & Opinions